Coalition Math and Why the Majority Doesn’t Matter
- Rahul Kulkarni
- May 17
- 3 min read
Most change fails not from resistance, but from weak coalition design.
In Negotiating With the Old Guard, Rashmi talked about negotiating with the old guard:
don’t fight positions, trade for interests.
Good advice.
But even if you negotiate well, you can still fail for a boring reason:
You built the wrong coalition.
This article we step into the third act of this series: modernize without backlash.
Most leaders walk into an MSME thinking change is a vote. If most people agree, you win.
That’s corporate thinking.
In legacy Indian SMEs, the majority is usually passive. The people who matter are the ones who can stop the flow.
Which seat are you stepping into?
Inherited seat: you may have authority, but you still need backing beyond the family name.
Hired seat: you may have ideas, but you don’t have a home team yet.
Promoted seat: you may have relationships, but you don’t automatically have permission.
The cricket field setting problem
In cricket, you don’t win because you have 11 batsmen.
You win because the field is set right for the plan.
A bowler can be doing everything right and still leak runs if the field leaves gaps.
Singles become boundaries.
The team blames the bowler.
But the real issue was field setting.
That’s how change fails in MSMEs.
The hidden power: veto players
A small blocking group can stall you even if everyone nods in meetings. They don’t argue. They sit at gates:
- money release
- purchase approvals
- dispatch control
- owner access
They can delay, create exceptions, raise “data doubts”, or ask for “one more confirmation”.
And then they do the most effective thing of all: quietly wait for your energy to fade.
A confession from my own work
In one assignment, I thought I had the room.
People smiled, agreed, even said, “Very good”.
Two weeks later, nothing had moved.
Two gatekeepers kept adding small speed-breakers.
Every objection sounded reasonable.
Over a month, the pilot died … no drama, just suffocation.
That’s when I learned:
in MSMEs, you’re rarely battling resistance. You’re battling veto power.
Coalition math in plain language
Political scientist William Riker had a simple idea: you don’t need everyone, you need a coalition that’s just big enough to win and hold.
In a company, that means: enough of the right people so the new way becomes unavoidable.
And people don’t jump alone. Most switch only when they see others switching because nobody wants to be the first person who looks foolish.
So your job is not “get buy-in from 50 people”.
Your job is:
1. build a small winning coalition
2. neutralize the blocking coalition
3. make it visible so the passive majority follows
How to do it without politics drama
1) Name the gates
Write the 3–5 gates your change must pass through (money, approvals, dispatch, data).
Then write who controls them in real life.
2) Pick your first five supporters
Not supporters in principle. People who will act.
Five is enough to cover gates without becoming a crowd.
3) Pay the coalition cost upfront
Each supporter needs one thing to stay aligned: respect, safety, credit, clarity, control of exceptions.
Ignore this, and support disappears the first time pressure comes.
4) Neutralize blockers calmly
You have three moves:
Convert: give them a dignified role and protect the interest they fear losing.
Bypass: redesign the workflow so their veto reduces.
Contain: limit their veto to exceptions, not the main flow.
What you should not do is start a public fight too early. That creates camps.
Camps create long wars. Wars kill modernization.
Field Test
Name your first five supporters for your next change.
Against each name, write ONE concession they need to stay aligned.
Example:
“You chair the weekly ritual.”
“Pilot data won’t be used for appraisal.”
“You control exceptions, but exceptions must be logged.”
“Your method becomes the base standard.”
“Your role is made explicit.”
If you can’t name five, you don’t have a coalition yet. You have a hope.
Close
In MSMEs, the majority is tired, busy, and risk-sensitive. They won’t lead your change. They will join it when it feels safe and inevitable.
So stop trying to convince everyone.
Set the field properly. Build alignment with five.
Neutralize the two who can block.
Next article, Rashmi will show what “modernization” looks like when you do it without panic:
minimum viable digitization … one interface where money moves, not a big-bang ERP religion.
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